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William Nack's Belmont Stakes primer

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Posted: Thursday June 03, 1999 03:28 PM

Sports Illustrated senior writer William Nack answers five basic questions about Charismatic's quest for the Triple Crown in Saturday's Belmont Stakes. And don't forget to look below to see whom he picks to win.

NACK RANKS PAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNERS 1. Secretariat (1973) 2. Count Fleet (1943) 3. Citation (1948) 4. Seattle Slew (1977) 5. Affirmed (1978) 6. Sir Barton (1919) 7. War Admiral (1937) 8. Whirlaway (1941) 9. Gallant Fox (1930) 10. Assault (1946) 11. Omaha (1935)

1. If Charismatic wins the Belmont Stakes, how will he rank among the 12 Triple Crown winners?

I'd have to see the Belmont. He would rank low, though. He'd make the list down around Assault and Omaha.

2. In the past two decades, has it become more difficult to win the Triple Crown?

No. I just think the horses haven't been up to it. Because, in a commercial rape of the sport, America sold so much of its blood stock to foreigners over the last 20 years, the horses that are being produced in America today are not good as they were in the 1960s and '70s. The '70s was the full flowering of American thoroughbreds; they've been in decline ever since. And that's chiefly the result of the selling of precious and irreplaceable blood stock to the Arabs, the Japanese, the English.

3. If Charismatic doesn't win the Belmont, it will be the third year in a row that a horse has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown and lost the third. Is the Belmont more difficult than the other races?

I think they're all hard. The Belmont is the longest by far -- a mile and a half. A lot of horses simply are not at their very best at that distance. It's too far for them. Not only that, but the Belmont is at the end of a very grueling five weeks, and some horses endure better than others. That's basically it. Some horses are just able to handle pressure, mentally and physically, better than others. And it looks like Charismatic is doing it. He appears sound and he looks terrific. I saw him Wednesday, I was with him for about an hour. He looks like copper. He hasn't lost much flesh since the Derby and Preakness. His girth maybe is not quite as hefty as it was, but it doesn't look like he's under any physical strain.

4. Are there certain characteristics found in all of the Triple Crown winners?

THE PREDICTION I think Charismatic is going to win, and he's going to have to beat Silverbulletday. Six horses have a chance: Charismatic, Silverbulletday, Stephen Got Even, Patience Game, Menifee, Best of Luck. Those are the six I'm going to be most concerned about.

They're all horses which have handled the pressure. They're all resilient, able to absorb pressure physically and mentally. And all of them have been bred to go the distance, all have the right pedigrees. Some of the races at Belmont have been lost due to jockey error, which is one of those things you can't predict. Some have been lost simply because the horse couldn't go that far. Others have lost the Triple Crown because they were physically compromised by injury -- like Majestic Prince in 1969 had an ankle injury and really should not have run in the Belmont. Same thing with Canonero in 1971; by the time he got to the Belmont he had ankle problems and was sore, and that's why he didn't make it. Last year Real Quiet didn't win, most likely because of a jockey error. I didn't write this at the time, because I didn't want to make such a harsh judgment so quickly, but since then I've seen the race on tape, thought about it, talked to other people, and I'm willing to go along with the idea that Kent Desormeaux moved too quickly too soon, and the horse had nothing left. Bob Baffert wouldn't even admit this after the race, but he finally does now. It was several weeks before he and Desormeaux even talked about the race.

5. How does winning the Triple Crown compare to accomplishments in other sports?

It's been done only 11 times since 1919. Has a golfer ever won the Grand Slam? Not the modern Grand Slam. That's probably harder. It is a really difficult thing to do, certainly the hardest thing to do in horse racing. It's kind of unique, really. What it is, is three foot races in five weeks -- three really long and grueling footraces, at three different tracks, in three different states. Horses have to be good shippers, good doers -- when a trainer says a horse is a good doer, that means he has a good appetite, he eats well. Every Triple Crown winner I've ever been around has been a good doer -- 15, 16 quarts of oats a day, plus supplements, plus all the hay they can eat.

 

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