Bouncing around ideas
Duke not invincible; Buckeyes a Final Four sleeper
Posted: Monday March 08, 1999 08:08 PM
Sports Illustrated college basketball writer Seth Davis chatted with CNN/SI anchor Paul Runnels about the NCAA Tournament field.
Paul Runnels: I should probably just ask you right off the bat, can anybody beat Duke?
Seth Davis: Well, not without some help. Duke would have to give its opponents some help one way or another. They're not an invincible team -- no team is invincible at this time of year because they still have to win six games. Personally, I'm curious to see how Trajan Langdon progresses during the week; after all, he didn't play in the team's last two games during the ACC Tournament. Also, I think that Duke's depth is maybe a little bit overrated, that they're a bit more susceptible to problems if they get into foul trouble, particularly in the backcourt. So let's not give them the trophy just yet, let's let them play their games and see how they do.
Runnels: Every year there are teams complaining about not making it into the tournament. Did anyone get left out that you think should have made it in?
Davis: This is the case every year. I happen to think that the committee did a really good job this year. I think one team that might have a case is Xavier. They finished at 21-10, 12-4 in the Atlantic 10, had a good nonconference win early in the year against Miami of Ohio. I think what really hurt them was a late loss to Massachusetts in the last week of the regular season. Also, I think they could have used an extra win, over Temple, in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, plus the fact Rhode Island went ahead and won that tournament and got the automatic bid, a bid they might not have gotten otherwise. That all hurt Xavier. And Wake Forest in the ACC maybe has a case. Again, Wake was one win away from being in this tournament. If they had defeated North Carolina State or maybe pulled off that upset in Chapel Hill at the end of the year maybe they'd have gotten in. But if you don't take care of business, you put your fate in the hands of the committee, and when that happens some teams are bound to be disappointed.
Runnels: What about some teams that got in, like the College of Charleston, but may have been seeded a bit low -- John Kresse's club is an eighth seed, they've got 28 wins, the second-longest winning streak in the nation and, of course, that big potential second-round matchup against Duke. That's a tough road.
Davis: The College of Charleston is one of those teams that comes up every time this year, trying to figure out where they should be seeded. But the fact is, coming out of the Southern Conference, it's just hard for them to collect a high power rating, never mind the fact that nobody outside the league wants to play Charleston. So inevitably the Cougars' power rating gets hurt this time of year, which is why they got that No. 8 seed.
Runnels: Let's go to the killer bracket -- it's the Midwest, obviously the strongest bracket of the four. What in the world did Michigan State do to deserve this fate?
Davis: Well, I don't know, they won a lot of games. Clearly the Midwest is the strongest of the four regions. You've got six major conference champions in that region: you have Michigan State, Utah, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC-Charlotte and Rhode Island, all those teams won their conference tournaments. You also have Arizona, which I think is the strongest No. 4 seed in the field. I think a lot of people will pick Arizona to make the Final Four. And also that 7-10 game against Washington and Miami of Ohio features two of the best players in the country in Todd MacCulloch and Wally Szczerbiak. Those are two teams, if they get on some kind of a roll, they're able to make the final eight. So whatever team comes out of that Midwest region certainly is going to earn its trip to St. Petersburg.
Runnels: What about some potential second-round matchups? In the South you have Mike Jarvis and St. John's in a possible matchup against his former club, George Washington, if the Colonials can pull the upset over Indiana.
Davis: First and foremost George Washington has to take care of its business with Indiana. And St. John's better not go to sleep against Samford; that might be a difficult first-round matchup for them. That's obviously going to be a second-round game a lot of people will be looking forward to, Mike Jarvis coaching against his erstwhile employer in George Washington. Also, I think a potential Kansas-Kentucky second-round game would be terrific. I think Kentucky definitely has some flaws, especially with its 3-point shooting, although I wonder if Kansas will be able to exploit that defensively. And North Carolina Charlotte against Arizona -- again, a lot of people I think are going to be picking Arizona to go to the Final Four. But UNC-Charlotte beat Cincinnati twice this year and it beat Louisville in the finals of the Conference USA Tournament. As well, I think the 49ers match up really well against Arizona, particularly with Galen Young as a perimeter defender, possibly matched up against Jason Terry. So those are a couple of the second-round games I think are going to be drawing a lot of attention over the weekend.
Runnels: Give us a couple of your sleepers: this year's Valpo, who can sneak into the Sweet 16, and maybe a "clunker," a highly-seeded club that might be looking at an early exit.
Davis: When I talk about sleepers, I look at two categories of sleepers. One is the Sweet 16 type of sleeper, and one team that comes to mind there is Delaware, the 13th seed in the East. Delaware is coming in really hot and it's won its last 13 games entering the tournament. The blue hens are a little suspect on the interior but you look at their matchups -- Tennessee, then potentially Wisconsin or Southwest Missouri State in the second round -- all of those teams are sort of suspect on the inside. So I think that plays well into Delaware's hands. Also, I like Florida, the No. 6 seed in the West. The Gators are a great shooting team. I don't think they can win enough games to get to the Final Four, but if the Gators can get by Penn, I think Florida would prove a great matchup against North Carolina, if they're hitting their shots.
If you're looking at Final Four sleepers, I like Ohio State. Guard play is tantamount this time of year and Ohio State, in my opinion, has the best backcourt in the country in Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd. And the Buckeyes' matchups -- they'd have to get through Maryland and Auburn and those are two teams that really aren't poised to take advantage of Ohio State's weakness on the inside. If Ohio State gets it into an up-and-down kind of game, where guard play and outside shooting becomes more of an emphasis, then I think they have a good chance of getting on a roll.
Sports Illustrated writer-reporter Seth Davis covers the college basketball beat and appears regularly on CNN/Sports Illustrated.
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