Safety patrol

Deepest pool of quality free agents is at safety position

It's not safe to be a safety looking for big-money deals these days.

Undoubtedly, the deepest pool of quality free agents still available is at the safety position. Lance Schulters could attest to that. Schulters was a Pro Bowl player with San Francisco just two seasons ago, and he appeared to be a lock to go to Tennessee.

Looking to find a replacement for Blaine Bishop, who signed with the Eagles, the Titans have brought in just about every available free agent. Schulters is their first choice, but there sure are a lot of really good safeties looking for work who might jump at a lot less money than Schulters would consider.

There's Victor Green, a tackling machine who has averaged more than 100 tackles a year for his career. He makes the calls in the secondary and plays with great intensity. There are young players on the rise, like Eric Brown, or experienced veterans, like Chad Cota, Rod Woodson, Kurt Schulz and Pat Tillman -- all still in search of a team.

The draft, as well, should produce two-first round picks in Oklahoma's Roy Williams and Miami's Ed Reed. And three more immediate starters could come in the second round -- Washington State's Lamont Thompson, Kansas State's Jon McGraw and Stanford's Tank Williams.

The sheer number of talented safeties available means no veteran will make the money he expected and anyone still unsigned by June 1 -- when the market will be flooded by more salary cap casualties -- stands to make considerably less.

Compensatory draft picks are based on flawed logic

One team is being added to the draft process this year, but it will seem like two to the existing teams.

The Texans will have two picks in every round -- they have six of the first 97 picks, a total of 14 overall -- which means all teams will be bumped down two spots every time they select. Many will miss out on selecting players they truly wanted.

Making matters worse is the inclusion of essentially an entire extra round of picks. The league has assigned 32 compensatory picks to be dispersed among 18 teams over the last four rounds of the draft.

Take a look at how all this impacts Carolina, for example. The Panthers had the worst record in the NFL last season, yet they don't get the first pick. In any other year, they would have had the first pick in the second round, too. But Houston will get a chance to choose three players before Carolina gets its second pick at No. 34.

Later on, instead of having the 97th pick, the Panthers will get bumped again -- twice, in fact (by the Texans and by the addition of a compensatory pick awarded to Buffalo at the end of the third round). So instead of having picks 1, 32, 63 and 94, Charlotte will have 2, 34, 67 and 99. Count up those 12 lost draft spots and you can see the potential for the Panthers missing a chance to draft the impact player it desperately needs.

I have no problems with integrating an expansion team into the league, but compensatory picks have always been a sore point with me. The logic is based on an evaluation of talent lost as compared with talent secured. The NFL Management Council determines which clubs lost more talent than they acquired through free agency and could assign up to four extra draft picks as compensation.

Buffalo, for instance, received the full complement of four picks. But who's to say the Bills didn't let players leave for reasons other than competitiveness at their positions? Maybe they didn't think Marcellus Wiley was worth the money San Diego wanted to pay him, or they didn't have the cap room to even try and keep him. But because Wiley was paid a lot of money, became the Chargers' full-time defensive end and made the Pro Bowl, the Management Council felt the Bills deserved the 97th pick in the draft.

Awarding Buffalo four compensatory picks -- or giving Baltimore three extra choices -- seems like a relief fund for those teams in cap jail.

'Less is more' philosophy doesn't apply to NFL QBs

It's hard for me to fathom that some people actually believe any old average quarterback is all that's needed to build a winning team in today's NFL.

Sure, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl but that was in large part to one of the greatest defenses ever. I like Dilfer a lot, but let's see the Seahawks win the Super Bowl if he has just an average season.

I had dinner the other night with one of the league's best offensive coordinators and a few members of his staff, and they laughed hysterically when I brought up this trendy notion. Their response: Give me Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Donavan McNabb or Peyton Manning every time.

As one coach told me, "Baseball would laugh you out of town if you tried to sell the concept of building your team around cheap, average pitching. The difference in the NFL is that your ace goes every game not once every four days, so it's even more important he's a great one."

Despite this new Less-Is-Better theory, it's going to be very hard for teams to pass on the quarterbacks at the top of this draft. If Houston takes David Carr with the first pick, seven of the next nine teams drafting -- Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Dallas, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Cincinnati -- would have to think long and hard about passing on Joey Harrington, a potential franchise quarterback.

By the way -- all the coaches I sat with at dinner liked Harrington as much if not more than Carr.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.

 

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