 |
| |
|
 |
 |
End of the line On Sunday, St. Louis will again hoist Lombardi TrophyPosted: Thursday January 31, 2002 1:01 PM
This game features a matchup between the great offensive mind of Mike Martz against the great defensive mind of Bill Belichick in a battle of wits and tactics. These two coaches are capable of canceling each other out, leaving the Patriots' offense, the Rams' defense and both clubs' special teams units to determine the outcome of the game. Two head coaches I spoke with feel that you should never give either Martz or Belichick a second look at an opponent. But when I pressed the point, both felt there was a slight edge to Belichick because of his ability to create new ways to stop an offense. Look at what he did to Kordell Stewart in the AFC Championship Game. They didn't feel Martz would do as much to change his package, except to give the ball to Marshall Faulk more than he did the last time these teams met. In that Nov. 18 game, Faulk got the call 20 times for a seemingly modest 83 yards. But look at that 4.2 yards per carry -- that's significant. If Faulk is given the same 31 carries he had in the NFC Championship Game, that's 130 yards and a problem for the Pats. Last week, the Rams were losing at halftime and Martz gave the ball to Faulk eight of the first nine plays in the third quarter. If he comes out in the first quarter with that philosophy, New England will be forced to get safety Lawyer Milloy up in run support. Then the passing lanes will be opened up and St. Louis can really do some damage. The Rams have been keeping tight end Ernie Conwell on the field more for pass protection rather than for his receiving skills. That's a very good idea because when the St. Louis coaches chart how many times New England sent extra pressure after Stewart last week, they'll realize the Pats will try to get to Kurt Warner, something Philadelphia tried -- but failed -- to do last week. In November, Warner was only sacked once while completing 30 of 42 passes for 401 yards. Look for overload pressure away from the tight end, more from the inside rather than the outside, to be the way Belichick goes. He knows Warner's launch point is usually five yards behind center; plus, the quarterback's quick release makes it hard to get to him from the outside. Tedy Bruschi is the likely candidate to do some blitzing in this scenario. Sooner rather than later Warner is going to get the ball in the hands of his Olympic track team set of receivers. Isaac Bruce hauled in seven for 130 yards in Foxboro in November, while Torry Holt caught another seven for 89 yards. These wideouts combined for 13 receptions for 142 yards last week. Otis Smith will be aggressive against Holt when he has safety support. When the blitz is on, look for Smith and Ty Law to play a soft alignment to try to keep Bruce and Holt in front of them. That's easier said than done. When the Patriots have the ball, the battle turns to Lovie Smith's Cover 2 defense versus Charlie Weis' offense. The premise of the St. Louis defense is to spill the running game outside by stunting the defensive linemen inside while having the linebackers fly to the football. That's why weak-side backer Tommy Polley had 11 tackles last week and must be blocked this week on every play. New England must establish an inside running game with Antowain Smith and go right at the interior of the Rams' defense. If you see lots of wide running plays, the Pats will be as ineffective as they were in November against the Rams when they rushed for 2.6 yards per carry. In reviewing that game tape, I counted just seven inside runs for 22 yards. New England needs to run the ball 15 to 20 times to control the clock and prevent the fast flow defense from getting to the ball. Look for Weis to line up in two-tight end formations to balance up the Rams' defense and create some soft spots inside for the rushing attack. The Patriots will use their three-wide receiver package not only on third downs but also on second-and-long situations. In the two playoff games, Weis has called eight runs and 33 passes on second-and-long. In these down and distance situations, the Patriots like to get Troy Brown in the slot. If Aeneas Williams lines up on Brown, then David Patten and Charles Johnson must come through big-time, especially whoever ends up facing Rams nickel back Dre' Bly. If New England had a legitimate deep threat at tight end, the Pats would be in a lot better shape to attack this defense. I spoke with several offensive coordinators who faced St. Louis this year and they feel that if the quarterback can hold the ball, the Cover 2 zone will spread out and excellent throwing lanes will open up. In order for Tom Brady to hold the ball, offensive tackles Matt Light and Greg Robinson-Randall will have to block Grant Wistrom and Leonard Little. That's where a breakdown will likely come, especially in sure passing situations. To win this game, New England is going to need another extraordinary day from its special teams group, which returned a punt for a touchdown and blocked a field goal for another score last week. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Rams only punted twice and never attempted a field goal in their November matchup. A lot of NFL coaches are pulling for the Patriots but everyone recognizes what they're up against. The Rams have a great running attack, the best passing attack in the league and, at last, a defense that can win a game if it has to. New England gave up 10 points off turnovers the last time these teams met. The Patriots only lost that game by seven points and for that reason they feel they have a chance to win. But unless Belichick's defense knocks Warner out of the game, New England's glorious ride will come to an end down in the bayou. Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
