AFC Championship

Return of Bettis will help Steelers roll over Patriots

Back in July when training camps got under way you couldn't find a person on the face of the earth who would have predicted that the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers would be the last two teams standing in the AFC. But one of these clubs is headed to New Orleans next week.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick made the tough decision months ago to ride the coat tails of inexperienced quarterback Tom Brady, whose fairy tale story reads similar to that of Kurt Warner's. The relative unknown got the job due to injury and all he knows how to do is win. Brady completes a high percentage of short passes and lets his teammates do the rest.

But now he faces a Steelers defense that will have five or six underneath zone defenders applying the heat. Brady is going to need help from his running game to keep some of the pressure off. Antowain Smith averaged 3.3 yards per carry against the Raiders and when the Patriots fell behind, it was all shotgun pass all the time. That formula will be a disaster this week. But after watching the Steelers' run defense, I'm not sure you can hope for much from Smith.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suddenly finds itself with a complete quarterback in Kordell Stewart. He has grown as a passer but is still a considerable threat to run with the ball and that gives Pittsburgh a decided advantage. Belichick is a master planner when it comes to his defense and he will keep an eye on Stewart with one of his smartest players, Tedy Bruschi.

If the Pats don't bear down on Stewart, they will find themselves getting burned by Plaxico Burress, who has emerged as a big-time weapon this season. New England may be tempted to line up Ty Law on the NFL's tallest receiver and that would leave Otis Smith to cover Hines Ward. I expect some safety help since the tight end position isn't much of a threat with Mark Bruener out.

Both the Patriots and Steelers had the ball for more than 40 minutes last weekend. That won't be the case for New England this time around. Pittsburgh's defense limited the Ravens to one third-down conversion in 12 attempts, picked off three passes and sacked the quarterback three times. Plus, the Bus -- Jerome Bettis -- is back. Even though the Steelers can win without him, it sure doesn't hurt to have him. I like Bill Cowher's team to get to New Orleans, and it won't be hard.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.

 

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