Playing the percentages

Coverting in the clutch is key to offensive success

Success on third down is the most important aspect of an NFL offense. Failure here results in the loss of possession.

I took a close look at seven teams last week to study third-down trends. These teams had 97 opportunities to move the down markers, yet only 26 first downs were converted. That's a 27 percent success rate. By comparison, the Rams converted 8 of 10 against the Colts; that's why they're the best team in football.

If the third-down situation is one yard or less, running the ball is a good idea. On a third-and-1 in the fourth quarter against Oakland, Denver's Mike Anderson picked up four yards and a first down. There were five similar situations in these games and four were converted to another set of downs; 80 percent is a good solid reason to keep it on the ground.

If a team needed more than one yard, things changed radically. Tiki Barber only needed three yards to move the chains, but he was unsuccessful and he wasn't alone. There were eight such situations, all failures and all pretty good examples why teams should consider the forward pass if more than three feet are required.

In the first quarter against the Ravens, the Jets tried a swing route to Curtis Martin on a third-and-3. It seemed like a reasonable call, but the ball was thrown short of the first-down marker and Martin didn't make it. With these seven teams, there were 31 passes thrown short of the mark and only four first downs converted.

I found 40 plays where the ball was in the air past the first-down line, 16 of which were complete for first downs. That's a 40 percent success rate, and that's not bad.

In the first quarter against Buffalo, Jets quarterback Vinny Testaverde rolled away from pressure and found Wayne Chrebet for the first down. The Jets called this play two more times on third downs. Once, they threw it short to Laveranues Coles and it failed. The last time, they threw it past the line to Kevin Swayne for a first down.

Here's the long shot of all the plays in this study. In the fourth quarter, Denver's Scotty Montgomery caught the ball short on this third-and-8 and made the first down. Some might say miracles do happen, but the truth is during this game Montgomery caught three other passes on third downs past the line and failed to convert any of them.

Surprisingly, no one tried a naked bootleg or any trick plays in this crucial situation. When the success rate of the most important play of the game stands at 27 percent, it may be time for teams to consider some new ideas.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNNSI.com.

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