East of Eden

Dolphins should prevail in low-scoring affair

Monday night's showdown features an interesting matchup: the team in first place in the AFC East against the team that was supposed to be in first place. The Dolphins, built around their defense, control their own destiny. The Colts, built around their offense, can't afford to lose one more game. This should be a good one.

Dave Wannstedt doesn't want his offense to lose the game, but the tight-leashed Dolphins waited until the fourth quarter last week to get their first score against the Broncos. During this seven-play scoring drive, Jay Fiedler hit three critical passes to three different receivers and looked better than the "caretaker" label he has earned around the league. Against a Colts team that knows how to pile up points, Miami simply can't wait this long to get on the board.

Last week, Peyton Manning led the Colts to 27 points against the world-champion Ravens, who have even a better defense than the Dolphins. With Edgerrin James lost for the season, Manning's favorite target, Marvin Harrison, will have to do more than catch five passes for 89 yards and a touchdown like he did last week. James' replacement, rookie Dominic Rhodes, will have a difficult time with Zach Thomas, so look for tight end Marcus Pollard to pitch in against a tough Dolphins defense.

In fact, Miami's comeback against Denver was fueled by key plays on defense and special teams. Down 10-7 late in the game, Kenny Mixon returned an interception 56 yards for the go-ahead score. The Dolphins then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff that led to a Lamar Smith touchdown run. Smith, however, rushed for just 36 yards against Denver. Miami's running game has disappeared due to injuries along the offensive line, as well as opponents deciding to focus on stopping the run and letting Fiedler try to beat them.

Of course, the Colts defense hasn't been able to stop anyone. They have given up a league-worst 337 points. And at minus-12, their turnover margin is even worse than Miami's.

Last year, the Colts went into Miami and won. But last year was a long time ago. I think this one will be low-scoring and close throughout, and the Dolphins will wind up retaining their hold on first place with some big plays by their top-flight defense.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

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