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Go Pack Go Green Bay will withstand road test at JacksonvillePosted: Monday December 03, 2001 11:34 AM
The Packers and Jaguars haven't played each other since 1995, and since there isn't much history between the teams, interdivisional matchups like this can be difficult to figure out. So I've got a lot of questions about Monday night's game. Can Green Bay's defensive backs cover the Jacksonville receivers? Can the Packers' pass rush get to Mark Brunell? Can Brett Favre find ways to take advantage of the home-team defense? Despite Favre's usual passing heroics, Green Bay would really like to establish its running game first. Through 10 games, Ahman Green is averaging 133 yards on offense a week. He's an excellent fit for the Packers' West Coast attack. Last week, the Jags surrendered 115 yards rushing to a Ravens team minus a big back, so stopping Green will not be an easy task. I wouldn't be surprised if Green Bay were to gain upwards of 125 yards on the ground in this game, especially if linebacker Kevin Hardy is out for Jacksonville.
Jaguars head coach Tom Coughlin would love to get the same kind of production from his ball carrier. Stacey Mack has done a decent job of replacing the injured Fred Taylor -- he had two scores last week against Baltimore -- but the truth is, the Jaguars didn't beat the Ravens because Mack was in the backfield. Jacksonville will struggle on the ground against the Packers, especially if nose tackle Gilbert Brown is clogging up the middle. You can be sure Green Bay defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has been reminding his players all week to go after the football when Mack carries it; he has had some ball security issues this season and fumbles could be a factor Monday. If this game comes down to being a battle of the quarterbacks, it's hard to side against Favre, who is at his best when he gets his tight end into the mix early and often. Jaguars defensive coordinator Gary Moeller has been criticized recently for schemes that don't put enough stress on their opponents (some have complained they're too "vanilla"). If Favre figures out where everyone is going to be on defense, he usually has a field day. He's had most of his problems when teams have disguised their blitz pressures. Moeller needs to mix up the looks and bring people from the secondary. Speaking of pass-rush pressure, Brunell was sacked four times last week and he will have to move around the pocket a lot or try to get going from a quick three-step drop. Green Bay will bring lots of pressure, though there's no denying that the loss of All-Pro safety LeRoy Butler will limit some of the Packers' options to get after the QB. If the Packers reduce their opponent's offensive opportunities and make this purely a passing game for Jacksonville, and I think they will, it will be a long night for the home team. If Green Bay's defense gets in on the scoring, it will be all over for Coughlin's club. So what do I expect? The Jaguars only drew 44,000 of the 53,000 paid attendance to their 73,000-seat stadium last week against their archrivals. The Florida fans have lost some interest, but the Jaguars should have the crowd behind them in this one for a while. In the end, though, the Packers will prevail as they move closer to a playoff berth with their eighth win of the year. Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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