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Breaking the Shanny hex Raiders should beat Broncos to take control of AFC West
Give me a divisional game every week on Monday Night Football and I'll be happy. Both the Raiders and the Broncos came into the season expecting to win the AFC West and move on to the Super Bowl. It may still happen for one team and Monday night should go a long way in telling us which. Every team knows Brian Griese is going to Rod Smith for the quick strike. But Eric Allen and Charles Woodson are both playing very well right now, and without another big-time threat opposite Smith, the Raiders corners could corral him. Smith did manage to catch 13 passes in two games against Oakland last year but he failed to get into the end zone. That simply won't be good enough this time around. When Griese drops back to pass, he needs to get through his reads quickly and deliver the ball because Oakland can and will apply pressure. Last week the Silver and Black got to the elusive Donovan McNabb four times. Sacks aren't the only problem for Griese. Last season he threw just four interceptions in 336 pass attempts; this year he has already thrown 10 in 220 attempts. I expect more short quick passes to the tight ends and running backs to combat this problem. Last Sunday against New England the Broncos' tight ends grabbed 10 passes and will get even more opportunities this week. When Oakland puts the ball in the air, Rich Gannon has two great targets, Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. Brown always rises to the challenge when the Raiders play Denver. Lately the Broncos corners have made big plays to win games. Last week Denver made five interceptions against the Patriots. But the Broncos were at home and facing second-year backup quarterback Tom Brady. This week they get the AFC's top-rated signal caller on the road. Both teams need to establish a solid running game very early in the game and both have choices in the backfield. Mike Anderson has had a few fumbles lately and the Broncos will switch to Olandis Gary or even Terrell Davis the second Anderson falters. Oakland will use multiple backs all night. Last week five different Raiders carried the ball as the offense rushed for over 200 yards and most importantly controlled the clock for 40 minutes. That's not encouraging news for Ray Rhodes' defense. Charlie Garner gives Oakland a very good outside threat to complement the inside power rushing scheme Jon Gruden loves to employ. What do I think will happen Monday night? Believe it or not, the Raiders have dropped seven straight to Denver, but with wins over the Colts and Eagles, everyone is jumping on the Oakland bandwagon. If the Broncos falter, they'll have three divisional losses, which will hurt them down the road. I expect Denver to come out playing hard but in the end not have enough firepower. I like the Raiders to get to 6-1 and emerge as the team to beat from here on out in the AFC. Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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