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Top 10 list As draft day nears, here's what we're hearing ...Posted: Monday April 21, 2003 5:44 PM
Tick, tick, tick. That's the sound of the NFL Draft countdown now that we're just five days away from the most meaningful afternoon of the league's six-month offseason. The draft is 262 picks deep this year, but nothing gets more scrutiny than the top 10. Five days. Ten picks. Keeping with that theme, here's our dime-store analysis of how the first round's opening third will unfold Saturday:
That's why Cincinnati is taking the somewhat unusual -- and risky -- approach of continuing to negotiate simultaneously with both the agents for Kansas State cornerback Terence Newman and Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich. But the Bengals have to be careful. They can't really make an offer to either Newman or Leftwich until they're certain Palmer isn't going to happen, otherwise they could back themselves into a tricky corner should either player quickly accept their deal. The Bengals and Palmer are said to be hung up so far on issues such as the timing of the contract's escalator clause triggers. Cincinnati would prefer the triggers to be only in the first three years of the deal, whereas recent first-round quarterback contracts, including the one the Bengals struck with Akili Smith in 1999, have had escalator windows that were open for far longer. Entering his fifth season, Smith would still earn an extra $5.75 million if he plays at least 55 percent of the team's snaps this season and throws for at least 2,500 yards. A long shot? You bet. But what if the Bengals would draft Palmer, making the necessary huge financial commitment, then watch as starter Jon Kitna struggles or is injured this year? With Palmer probably serving as No. 3 all season, that could mean Smith takes over and reaches his escalator levels. Between what Cincinnati is paying Kitna and Palmer, and would owe Smith, that's the Bengals nightmare scenario. They don't want to pay that kind of money to a player who in his fifth season and is almost certainly a wasted pick at this point, and they don't want to repeat that contractual structure with Palmer. Palmer remains in the driver's seat in Cincinnati. But he's not on his victory lap just yet.
Several teams seem to have Rogers and Miami's Andre Johnson neck-and-neck on their receiver board. Detroit's the only team that really gets to make that call, and it's going to go in Rogers' favor.
But others say slide your money on Johnson to Houston and leave it there. The rest is just smokescreen, designed to get somebody who's hot for Newman to pick up the phone and give the Texans a call. Until further notice, we're buying that version of events.
In short, Robertson looks cleaner than defensive end Terrell Suggs, who has now twice run slower than expected 40s, or quarterback Byron Leftwich, whose two leg injuries in the past two years make Chicago a little bit hesistant to spend that lavishly.
The Saints' choice is whether to deal with Dallas to get Newman or wait and settle for Washington State cornerback Marcus Trufant in the No. 7 spot. That's Minnesota's pick, and the Vikings, eager to not pay the bonus that goes with that top-10 slot, are the more motivated trader. The Cowboys' pick would cost the Saints both their first-rounders, No. 17 and 18, while the Vikings' No. 7 would come cheaper. That's why Newman to Dallas is the safer bet.
Sometimes your backyard is too close to see the forest for the trees. And sometimes it's the people who have been right under your nose all along who are the most valuable.
Depending on whom you talk to, the draft's elite players stop either right before or right at the Vikings' pick. Like we said above, the big if is whether the Saints choose to deal with Dallas or Minnesota. The Cowboys are a seller's market. The Vikings are not.
Harris' mantra? If it's close, you always stretch your board to take the quarterback, who plays the game's most pivotal position. There's a lot to learn from history in Jacksonville's current situation. Though he could go other ways, my gut tells me Harris, running his own show for the first time, won't pass on the quarterback this time.
Such a move would allow the Ravens to move down a few notches, pick up Cal quarterback Kyle Boller, and still garner an extra draft choice. But then again, Baltimore would be tickled if its choice is to stand pat and take Kennedy, whom it has rated higher than the draft's No. 10 player. Although a trade is very possible, Kennedy is the most likely sit-tight option.
Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.
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What we're hearing: Carson Palmer is still the Bengals' guy and they're not wavering on that decision. After all, there's still plenty of time for Cincinnati to get the pre-draft deal it desires this week before handing in the card to Paul Tagliabue. That said, the negotiations have a lot of ground to cover in the next few days and it's not inconceivable that Palmer and the Bengals might not get things worked out.
What we're hearing: The Lions probably came out and let it be known that Charles Rogers was the guy they coveted way too early for their own good. Our guess is that all that fawning attention might not strengthen their hand come contract negotiation time. Last week's revelation that a "masking technique" was identified in Rogers' Combine drug test -- said to be excessive water in his system -- didn't scare off the Lions. But it did give them an issue that won't go away for a while.
What we're hearing: In recent days, the buzz around the league has been that the Texans will cross up a few folks and select Newman, with the issue being their questions regarding Johnson's stage of development as a potential No. 1 receiver. There's also some who say Houston's defensive coaches have been chipping away at the team's front office, convincing it that it won't matter if quarterback David Carr has a big-play receiver to throw to if the Texans' D can't stop anybody.
What we're hearing: Another slot that you can out-think yourself on. Dewayne Robertson has been the consensus choice for Chicago for a while now, and the Jerry Angelo I know says the Bears general manager would rather hit a solid double than strike out swinging for the fence.
What we're hearing: Very little, since Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells has standing orders to execute anyone who dishes to the media. Anyone other than Jerry and Stephen Jones, that is. Dallas likes Newman and he is the player in this draft who is deemed most NFL-ready. But the Cowboys also are willing to move down for more picks, and one scenario has New Orleans as their trading partner.
What we're hearing: We could be wrong, but until they start timing Suggs' 40-yard dash with a sun dial, the hometown guy to the Cardinals still makes too much sense to ignore. Having seen what a pass rusher like Simeon Rice can do wearing a different shade of red, Arizona is willing to gamble that Rice plays faster than he tests.
What we're hearing: Of the possible top-10 deals, this is the most likely. The Saints take advantage of Minnesota's desire to move, shipping the Vikings their No. 17 pick and a second-rounder for the No. 7. New Orleans gets the draft's second-best cornerback, and Minnesota owner Red McCombs gets to save money and avoid another Bryant McKinnie-like holdout come draft pick-signing season.
What we're hearing: When he was part of the Ravens' draft war room in 1999, new Jaguars general manager James Harris strenuously made the case for Baltimore taking Daunte Culpepper with the No. 10 pick. Instead, the Ravens stuck to their board and selected cornerback Chris McAlister. Minnesota took Culpepper at No. 11.
What we're hearing: It's still a perfect blend of need and positioning for the Panthers. Carolina has a void at right tackle, and Jordan Gross is the draft's consensus top-rated player at that position. It's rarely sexy to take a first-round offensive lineman. But, hey, the Panthers weren't sexy last season either, and their six-game improvement still represented the NFL's biggest jump in 2002. Gross will help them take another step forward this year.
What we're hearing: Given the way our board falls, the Ravens' first instinct is likely to investigate the trade-down option, to see how badly teams like No. 11 Seattle, the Jets at 13, and New England at 14 and 19 want to move up for Jimmy Kennedy or the defensive lineman of their choice. Or, on the chance that Kennedy is gone and Trufant remains available, teams like St. Louis at No. 12 and New Orleans at 17 and 18 could come knocking for the cornerback.
