'Skin deep

Personnel men unimpressed by Washington's spending spree

Setting a pace of activity that no one else has cared to or been able to match, the Washington Redskins have received a bevy of good reviews regarding their much ballyhooed free-agency plan of attack. The names and signings have come in waves, dominating the headlines in the opening 10 days of free agency.

Everywhere you look, there's another account of how the Redskins' front office developed a plan to "identify and attack" in its offseason shopping spree, beating teams to the punch by acting quickly and decisively. Owner Daniel Snyder, cell phone, notepad and calculator in hand, has been portrayed as a walking, talking, private-jet-flying, cash-dispensing negotiation machine, wrapping up deals as fast as his speed dial allowed. Again and again, credit has been given to the Plan, the Plan, the Plan.

Last week, Snyder even went so far as to tell the Washington Post, "I hate the [bleeps] who said we didn't have a plan. We had a plan. We're executing it now."

Hey, it's great to have a plan, and even better to execute it crisply. But in the end, the beauty of any plan is only apparent if it ultimately leads to success. That's where Snyder's track record doesn't inspire confidence.

After all, the Redskins had a plan in 2000 as well. That year, despite being the defending NFC East champions, the plan in Washington was to collect big-name stars like they were so many football cards. Hired guns like Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, Mark Carrier and Jeff George were brought in, with disastrous salary cap consequences and ho-hum 8-8 results on the field.

In 2001, the plan was to let new head coach Marty Schottenheimer handle everything, trusting that his proven methods would produce success. That approach lasted a year as well, again with 8-8 results.

Then last season, the first of the Steve Spurrier era in D.C., there was yet another plan. This time, the strategy of choice was to spend on defense, adding defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis and veterans like Jeremiah Trotter, Jessie Armstead and Renaldo Wynn, and to go cheap on offense, bringing in a boatload of ex-Florida Gator skill position players who had kicked around the NFL. Trust us, we were told, guys like Jacquez Green, Reidel Anthony, Chris Doering, Willie Jackson, Danny Wuerffel and Shane Matthews can still play.

Turns out, they couldn't play. At least not well enough to earn a second season in Washington. Not after they had so much to do with the Redskins' disappointing 7-9 finish in 2002.

So where does that leave the Redskins as the 2003 season looms? Staring at a fourth different "plan" in four years, one that seems to be trying hard to split the difference between 2000's failed free-agency extravagance and the relatively modest bargain-basement expenditures of last year.

As one league personnel director said: "You get the feeling with the Redskins it's, 'Let's try this. That didn't work. Let's go this way. That didn't work. OK, let's go to the middle of the road and try that.' What they're doing is drawing a lot of media attention and creating a buzz with the fans, but the proof is going to be in the pudding next September. That's when we'll find out if this plan worked."

So how much better are the Redskins for going out and acquiring 13 new players -- which will be their total haul if their offers to restricted free agents Laveranues Coles and Chad Morton aren't matched -- and committing themselves to more than $31 million in signing bonuses?

Will they be markedly improved, or only marginally? We put that question to a handful of personnel men around the league, asking them to analyze the likely outcome of Washington's offseason overhaul.

Here are excerpts of their position-by-position analysis of the Redskins' moves:

Receiver: The biggest splash of free agency for the Redskins was giving Coles, the Jets' best receiver, a seven-year, $35 million offer sheet that includes a $13 million signing bonus. New York is not expected to match it and will instead receive Washington's first-round pick, No. 13 overall, in compensation.

Opinions were divided over the Redskins' decision to land a No. 1 receiver in free agency, rather than supplement the position behind third-year veteran Rod Gardner in the draft.

"If they could just turn in Coles' name in the draft, they'd do it a second," said a veteran personnel man. "They're getting a No. 1 quality player. It's not like they're not getting a one. Last year, the No. 13 pick in the draft, Donte Stallworth [receiver taken by New Orleans] ... got about $8.5 million in guaranteed money, so in essence that pick this year was going to cost Snyder about $10 million in guaranteed base and bonus.

"For an extra $3 million, he bought a finished product and a proven No. 1 receiver. You've got to be happy with that. You get a veteran player now and fill a huge need."

But another veteran personnel man believes the Redskins paid a premium price for Coles without getting a premium player. "They're not getting David Boston, or Terrell Owens, or Eric Moulds, or Isaac Bruce, or Randy Moss," he said. "I don't think Coles is a No. 1 receiver. I think he's a No. 2 at best. There's not much difference between [ex-Redskin receiver] Derrius Thompson and Coles in my opinion. Put Thompson with the Jets last year and he would have caught 80 balls.

"Remember, somebody has got to catch the balls, but that doesn't always make a team's leading receiver a No. 1 receiver. I'm not diminishing Coles' ability, but he's not a $13 million receiver. It's just that Gardner and Thompson aren't Spurrier-type receivers. They're bigger and more physical, and he likes the smaller, quicker guys."

Running back: Washington's trade for former Rams running back Trung Canidate didn't cost them much -- a fourth-round pick in 2004 and David Loverne, a guard they were going to cut anyway. But the move still left several league personnel men scratching their head.

"I don't know what they expect to get out of Trung," said one source. "It's hard for me to understand that one. The way I look at it, if he couldn't succeed playing in that offense, with that talent around him, on that fast track in St. Louis' dome, how's it going to be any different playing in Spurrier's offense outdoors on grass?"

Said another talent scout: "To me, Canidate's just a straight-line runner, and I don't know if that fits the Redskins' offense. Lamar Gordon beat him out for the backup job in St. Louis this year. I just don't think they got better there after releasing Stephen Davis. I think [holdovers] Ladell Betts and Kenny Watson are both better than Canidate."

While accepting Spurrier's logic for releasing Davis, a third personnel man questions whether Washington now has anyone who can run effectively in the red zone.

"They're going to try and use Trung in space, on screens and draws and swing routes," the personnel man said. "Which is all well and good until you get in the red zone. But I knew that Steve didn't want to play with a big back, gaining 1,200 yards per season. That's not him. He gets bored with that. He wasn't going to have the kind of offense that Davis needs to play in."

Guard: The position was easily the Redskins' most glaring need, and they proved it, signing two starters and two backups in a matter of three or four days. Ex-Jet Randy Thomas was the big-ticket item, garnering a seven-year, $27.6 million contract that included a whopping (for a guard) $7 million signing bonus. Ex-49er Dave Fiore is the other projected starter, with Lennie Friedman and Tre' Johnson signing cheap, one-year deals.

The consensus? "They're much better," a veteran personnel man said. "But then again, they were playing with turnstiles last year, so they had to get better."

Said another personnel evaluator: "They got the best guard in the market in Thomas, and if Fiore can stay healthy he's an upgrade. Compared to what they had, they're markedly better at guard."

Not everybody was quite so taken with Washington's work at the position. "They only got one player, and that's Thomas," a personnel man said. "Fiore is at the end of the line. Tre' Johnson can't play any more and Friedman is a forever backup. They got some names, yeah, but they only added one player who can definitely be considered an upgrade."

Defensive line: Washington lost a quality run-stuffer in Daryl Gardener and a decent young talent in Carl Powell, replacing them with the hard-working Brandon Noble and the inconsistent Regan Upshaw. None of the personnel men we spoke to consider the Redskins' line upgraded.

"They were probably wise in not giving Gardener a long-term deal, given his track record," one league scout said. "But Noble's not that hot of a guy. He's a try-hard guy who will make some plays against the run, but he gives you virtually nothing by way of pass rush. Upshaw is too up and down for me. At best you could argue that they broke even."

Said another personnel evaluator: "Noble for Gardener? They're not winning anything there. And Upshaw does little for you, too. That's a net loss."

A third added: "I think it was a big mistake to let Powell go. He can play inside and outside. Upshaw is streaky and long in the tooth. I like Noble, but you can't say he's an upgrade over Gardener."

Special teams: Return specialist Chad Morton is the key to improvement here. If the Jets (and by the way, I can't wait for the Jets at Redskins Thursday night season-opener next September, which won't lack for story lines) match Washington's five-year, $8 million offer sheet and retain Morton, that would be a blow to the Redskins.

"The guy's a good player," said an AFC personnel man who saw Morton in action this season. "He changes field position for you. When you play the Jets, their special teams play is part of their talent."

But personnel experts weren't as sold on the Redskins signing away the Jets former kicker, John Hall. While he's better than the revolving door that Washington has had at the position the past three years, Hall doesn't inspire confidence, they said.

"Hall is going to be grossly overpaid," said a personnel man. "He's not a consistent enough kicker. He's at like 73 percent. His kickoffs are good, but not many of his field goals seem to go straight."

Said a league scout of Hall: "I liked him a lot three years ago, but now he's on the decline. He's an upgrade for them, but they could have done better."

Quarterback/overview: The irony of Washington's offseason thus far is that despite overhauling about a quarter of its roster, nothing will impact the 2003 season as much as the development of second-year quarterback Patrick Ramsey, who has been crowned the team's offensive leader despite rather uneven results in his five starts as a rookie.

Redskins fans have seen virtually no stability at the game's most important position since Brad Johnson's Pro Bowl season in 1999, and the turnover continued in part with the signing of backup Rob Johnson, who will replace both Wuerffel and Matthews.

"It all comes down to Ramsey," said a personnel man. "They can make all these moves, but if he's not quite ready to get the job done in his second year, it all goes up in smoke. It won't matter if he has Laveranues Coles with him or not. Ramsey had his ups and downs last year, and I expect he'll have the same kind of experience at times this year. It won't help him that he doesn't have a veteran No. 1 running back behind him."

Said another personnel man: "Even if you like all their moves, they're depending on getting a lot out of Ramsey next season. It all falls back on him, because this is a quarterback league. We're all in trouble if our quarterback doesn't perform, but that's really true in Washington."

Where does that leave the Redskins, who have made the playoffs just once in Snyder's first four years of ownership, the one season (1999) in which Washington didn't follow some dramatic new plan? Improved, but only marginally, say the personnel experts we interviewed.

"What they've done is a lot of fluff and not much substance," said a veteran talent evaluator. "They're still in that 7-9 to 9-7 range. Unless Ramsey turns into Marc Bulger or Kurt Warner, I don't see anything that has them challenging the Eagles for that division.

"They may win nine games if the ball bounces right for them. But I think the Cowboys might end up going by the Redskins, and New York looks about the same. Washington hasn't moved anywhere significantly in that division with all of this.''

Other personnel men agreed with that assessment, saying Washington looks like it will hover near .500 for the fourth consecutive season.

"They improved their personnel, but their record might not be all that much different," a league scout said. "I don't see them going to 11-5 or 12-4 on that talent. They lost Marvin Lewis as their defensive coordinator, and they still have some holes on their defensive line and in the secondary. It looks like 8-8 or maybe 9-7 to me. More of the same.''

In Washington, more of the same would again prove a point: The Redskins in the Snyder era have been long on plans, and short on patience. Maybe this time, the plan is to learn that lesson.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.

 

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