Undersized and overpaid?

Good CB Bly gets great CB money in mediocre market

It happens every year at various positions, more often than not in the nascent stages of free agency. This year, it was the cornerback market that provided us the latest example of the NFL's laws of supply and demand.

Think of this way: Just because there weren't any true No. 1 cornerbacks in this year's crop of free agents, that doesn't mean some fortunate player wasn't going to get paid like the No. 1-rated cornerback.

Even in a mediocre talent pool, somebody has to be top ranked. And in this case, that cornerstone principle of the free-market system landed St. Louis' Dre' Bly No. 1 cornerback money in Detroit, even though by all accounts he's not a No. 1 cornerback.

Bly sealed a five-year, $24.5 million deal with the Lions on Saturday, including a fat $6.5 million signing bonus. The contract averages almost $5 million per year, and an eye-opening $5.5 million in its first three years, which are the operative figures to look at in today's cap-conscious NFL.

Why was Bly the lucky guy? Because the Lions decided they had to have him, and have him right now, even if it meant overpaying with their eyes wide open. With as many as a half-dozen teams interested in having Bly visit -- especially division rival and cornerback-needy Minnesota, where Bly was scheduled to be early this week -- Detroit felt it necessary to throw a ridiculous number at him in order to win the auction before the bidding even started.

That whatever-it-takes mentality probably earned Bly an extra $1 million per year in the Lions contract, and gave Detroit the satisfaction of having landed their No. 1 free-agent priority. The Lions secondary, of course, was a disaster zone last year, creating big pressure on Detroit to upgrade it dramatically.

The Lions had former Bronco Denard Walker rated second overall among free-agent cornerbacks, and the talent gap between the two players is not judged to be significant. Still, Detroit reasoned that Bly was the best corner available, and that it couldn't afford to let him get away. Voila, the creation of an above-market deal.

"Life's all about timing,'' said one wistful NFL executive. "Every year there are good players getting paid what great players deserve, solely because of the timing of the market. Bly is a good cornerback, but a lot of teams need cornerbacks, so he got paid like a great cornerback.

"It's ridiculous. Nobody ever dreamed he'd get that kind of deal. But it's the same way things work in the draft. Because of need, guys get pushed up the draft board.''

Not to bash Bly, who did nothing but have the common sense to quickly say yes to the most generous offer he was going to see. He's an aggressive cover man and a solid play-maker who at 25 is coming off his best season in four years with St. Louis. But some league personnel men label him a typically small, dome-team corner who is not even the equal of Dexter McCleon, another of the Rams free-agent cornerbacks.

"The numbers don't say he's better than McCleon,'' said a league personnel man. "Detroit probably thinks he'll earn some of that money returning punts and kicks, since they released Desmond Howard. But it looks to me like Minnesota spooked them and the Lions overreacted.''

Bly is just 5-9, 190 pounds, and last season was his first as a full-time starter after three years as the Rams' nickel corner. While he has good instincts and isn't afraid to gamble and break on the ball, some observers already question how he'll fare going up against Randy Moss and the other tall receivers in the NFC North. After all, Bly is now the Lions No. 1 cornerback and will routinely be paired against an opponent's best receiver.

"A 5-9 corner in that division?'' said one club official. "What were they thinking paying that kind of money?''

Will Bly be an upgrade for the Lions, whose pass defense ranked 30th overall in 2002? No doubt. But can he be an impact player who measures up to his $5 million-per-season price tag? Recent free-agent history suggests otherwise.

"Teams that try to shop in the first couple days of free agency are usually going to look to significantly overpay,'' said the club executive. "But what most people have learned in free agency is that nobody knows these players better than their own teams.

"If St. Louis was unwilling to pay Bly more than $3 million per year (the Rams' last offer was four years at $12 million), and they cut all three of their cornerbacks, that should have told everybody something. The history of free agency tells you you're usually going to fail signing big-money players from other teams.''

Bly's big deal accomplished this much for every other free-agent cornerback: It set the market, perhaps prompting teams to pay more than they intended to the likes of McCleon, Walker, Tory James, Ashley Ambrose and Corey Fuller.

"It hurts, because now the market is going to have to adjust to the Bly deal,'' said one interested team's cap expert. "There may have to be a cooling off period now, because none of the rest of those guys is worth nearly that much. But that's how need drives the market. That's why you've got to pay your own players in this system.''

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