Snake charmer

Enigmatic Plummer finally may find success as a free agent

Here's the shorthand on the perplexing six-year NFL career of Jake Plummer, who for my money is the most intriguing free agent-to-be in the NFL's upcoming annual meat market:

The Arizona quarterback is inconsistent enough that in the first half he can make the ill-advised throws that get you beat, then turn around in the second half and make the breathtaking plays that win you the game. First he digs the hole, then he often heroically leads the way out of it.

It's that glass-is-half-empty, half-full argument that makes Plummer, 28, so puzzling and yet so enticing as a potential free agent. Rest assured, there are at least four teams -- Denver, Dallas, Chicago and Carolina -- prepared to view Plummer as something considerably more than a 50-50 proposition.

"That's a fair perception with him, it really is," one NFL general manager said. "You would have thought he'd hit more of a level of consistency by now, in terms of maturity and decision making. It is puzzling, because that part of it hasn't come to fruition the way Arizona thought it would.

"After a while, you'd think a guy just figures it out, not unlike a Rich Gannon or any number of other veteran quarterbacks in recent memory. And he still may. He's still young. Maybe at the next stop, it'll be different."

Plummer's detractors point to the following facts: He has thrown 114 career interceptions, as opposed to just 90 touchdowns. Only once in six seasons (2001) has Plummer's touchdown-interception ratio been above water (18 to 14). He has never completed more than 59.2 percent of his passes (that coming in his breakthrough season of 1998), owns a career quarterback rating of 69.0 and is just 30-52 as a regular-season starter.

But for Plummer's supporters within the league, much of the weight of that data can be lessened with a one-word rebuttal: Arizona. The morass that is the Cardinals franchise must be factored into any fair analysis of Plummer's record, the same way a handicap is applied in golf.

The trick for any potential Plummer suitor is figuring out how many of his problems were related to Arizona's problems and how many are unique to him?

"The guy obviously has been inconsistent," said the GM. "But he has got a lot of good playing experience at a young age and done some very good things in clutch moments. To a degree, you're still going on what he was coming out of college and in what he did early in his NFL career. But maybe it's hard for anybody to develop and really ascend coming out of Arizona. At least that's the way it has been at other positions."

Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay offers recent proof of that hypothesis, with three ex-Cardinals on its roster: Pro Bowl defensive end Simeon Rice, running back Michael Pittman and veteran offensive lineman Lomas Brown. With the Bucs, the former Cardinals -- Rice especially -- rid themselves of the underachieving labels that had followed them from Arizona.

Talk to people around the league about Plummer and they describe him as a highly competitive, natural-born leader and a resilient playmaker in the face of adversity. But those play-making skills also come back to haunt him at times, in the form of a glaring lack of discipline when it comes to taking care of the ball. Plummer, it seems, still has the immature mindset that he can salvage any play with the flick of his wrist.

"The biggest thing with Jake was he never really learned how to play with the lead," said one of Plummer's former coaches in the NFL. "He knew how to play from behind. But when he has the lead, he really hasn't been a guy who has understood protecting the football and how important that is. He tries to make some plays he shouldn't try to make."

That same ex-coach, however, likens Plummer at this point of his career to Vinny Testaverde's Tampa Bay era, which has some striking parallels. After spending his first six seasons as a Buc (1987-92), playing for three different head coaches and in numerous systems, Testaverde eventually overcame his penchant for throwing killer interceptions and his stigma for playing losing football. Like Testaverde early in his career, Plummer also has been accused of not being among the most cerebral of quarterbacks.

"People always thought Vinny wasn't a smart guy, but he's very football smart, and Jake is a lot like that," the coach said. "He understands football and he understands protections. The perception really isn't accurate. It's just that both of those guys had to play in a lot of different systems, with a bunch of different coordinators, without much of a supporting cast early in their careers.

"As Vinny grew up and matured, he learned how to take care of the football and how to study the game. I think Jake will, too. But a change of scenery would do him a world of good."

Reached Wednesday, Cardinals head coach Dave McGinnis declined comment on Plummer's pending free-agent status or the club's intentions regarding its quarterback. While it's expected that Plummer will test the market, there are some indications that McGinnis hasn't given up hope of re-signing Plummer, perhaps an indication that he's less than certain 2002 third-round pick Josh McCown is ready to assume the starting role.

Late last season, Plummer expressed a desire to remain in Arizona, where he played collegiately at Arizona State, but few give the Cardinals any real chance of retaining him. Having overpaid Plummer with his last Arizona contract, in late-season 1998, the Cardinals aren't likely to spend lavishly again for a quarterback who completed just 53.6 of his passes in 2002, with a 65.7 quarterback rating and 18 touchdowns. As the most attractive free-agent quarterback, Plummer could spark a bidding war and command a signing bonus in the range of $5 milllion.

The consensus is that Denver and head coach Mike Shanahan are the early favorites to win the multiteam Plummer derby, with Dallas head coach Bill Parcells expected to provide the strongest competition. The Broncos, who would like to rid themselves of starting quarterback Brian Griese after June 1, reportedly have researched and targeted Plummer alone among prospective free-agent quarterbacks.

Said one GM of a potential match between Denver and Plummer: "I think Shanahan's got a Cadillac there with that offense, and he thinks all he needs is a driver. He's probably in the best position to sell Plummer on their situation."

The Broncos, with their history of winning with offensive prowess and deep skill-position talent, will indeed pose a tempting package to Plummer, a native of Boise, Idaho. Where would be better for Plummer to revive his career?

"It'd be an amazing opportunity for Jake, playing in a system that runs the ball the way Denver runs the ball, with their play-action capability," said the onetime Plummer coach. "With their coaching stability and [offensive coordinator] Gary Kubiak and Shanahan working with him, it might be the perfect spot for him. I know this: That's where I'd go if I were him."

Free agency opens a little more than three weeks from now, on Feb. 28. Which means by next month, Plummer might have a new team, a new lease on his career and be hard at work on reversing a few old perceptions.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.

 

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