|
|
 |
 |   |
EVENTS Fantasy Central Inside Game Video Plus Statitudes Your Turn Message Boards Email Newsletters Golf Guide Cities 
CNNSI.com GROUP
COMMERCE | |
Fantasy File Just what is a sure thing in fantasy ball?
By James Quintong, CNNSI.com A very common strategy in fantasy football drafts is to get two top-notch running backs in the first two rounds, then go back and fill out other positions later on. There are only a handful of starting running backs who can consistently put up big numbers, the thinking goes, and the dropoff in talent is so extreme that you don't want to be stuck with a middling running back. At the same time, since all but an elite few quarterbacks and wide receivers are going to put up similar numbers, why not wait a few rounds to get them? At least part of the reasoning is that two stud running backs can more than make up for even a high-scoring fantasy quarterback like Kurt Warner or Daunte Culpepper. Well, the running back-heavy philosophy hasn't worked out as well as a lot of fantasy owners would've liked this season. In fact, many of those who invested high picks into the top of the running back class got burned. Let's take a look at the preseason Player Value Rankings for running backs and see how the top 10 have fared so far this season. 1. Marshall Faulk, Rams: When he's on the field, he's lived up to expectations, going for 875 combined yards and seven TDs. However, he missed 2 1/2 games with a knee injury, and the threat of further health woes still looms large. He's definitely not a sure bet. 2. Edgerrin James, Colts: Like Faulk, he was putting up his usual numbers before going down with a knee injury. The durable James now could be lost for the season, causing many fantasy owners to scramble for Dominic Rhodes. Injuries are always part of the game, but it would be devastating to see James and Faulk both go down for extended periods of time. 3. Eddie George, Titans: Like James, George was a very durable back who put up good numbers and played a lot. But now he's simply one of the biggest disappointments of the season, rushing for only 444 yards (a paltry 2.8 yards per carry) and just one TD. He still hasn't gotten up to speed after offseason toe surgery, and the struggles of the offensive line plus the departure of fullback Lorenzo Neal have exposed George to a lot of punishment. 4. Curtis Martin, Jets: He could emerge as the No. 1 fantasy back by the time the season ends partly because of his production and partly because he's stayed healthy. He leads the NFL with 917 yards and 10 touchdowns. Even more impressive is that he's averaging 4.7 yards per carry after entering the year averaging below four. The Jets' passing game is erratic, but as long as Martin continues to pound the ball they (and your fantasy team) will be in good shape. 5. Fred Taylor, Jaguars: When he's on the field, he can be one of the most explosive running backs in the league. However, he's only played two games this season after suffering a groin injury, and his return is still up in the air. His talent makes him such a tempting fantasy choice, but his injuries then emerge like a huge slap in the face. 6. Stephen Davis, Redskins: The one touchdown through eight games is very disconcerting, but there are signs he's breaking out of an early funk. After averaging just 54.75 yards per game the first four games, he's on a 111.75-yard pace over the last four. His prospects for the second half of the season look good as long as the Redskins continue to play well. 7. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: Almost the opposite of Davis, the Chargers rookie raced out quickly, going for at least 90 yards in his first four games along with six touchdowns. Since then, he's slowed considerably, rushing for just two TDs and averaging 62.8 yards his last five games. The league is starting to catch up to him, although Tomlinson is still due for another couple of big games before the end of the year. 8. Ricky Watters, Seahawks: A broken collarbone has limited him to just three games this season, although his numbers were decent before he went down. Shaun Alexander has been dominating in his place, and it will be a challenge for Watters to see considerable carries when he's ready to return to the field. 9. James Stewart, Lions: A bum ankle has forced him to miss the last three games, and the will-he, won't-he dilemma has been very aggravating to many fantasy owners. Even before his injury, Stewart hasn't been very impressive. He had just one score (a receiving touchdown) and one 100-yard game. Also telling is that he hadn't seen more than 17 carries in a game all year. The Lions have struggled from the start and haven't been able to go to the running game as much as they'd like. 10. Jamal Anderson, Falcons: He's done for the year after suffering yet another torn ACL in the third game. Before that injury, he did have two good performances, including 192 total yards with a 94-yard TD reception against the Panthers on Sept. 23. So breaking it down, you've got just one consistent star running back from that group in Martin. Faulk has been great when healthy. James, Taylor, Anderson, Stewart and Watters have all missed large chunks of time with injuries. Not necessarily the results you want from your top 10. Where do some of the other top backs of this year rank? Ricky Williams (13) and Ahman Green (18) were ranked relatively low in the PVR but were in the top 10 in many preseason rankings. Corey Dillon (16) is hit or miss, so his ranking works here. Jerome Bettis (17) has been a huge surprise with the amount of yards, but the scoring output needs to improve. As for surprises, Priest Holmes (26) was very much an afterthought despite having a starting job, but he's had flashes of greatness. Antowain Smith (54) has proven to be more like the one that was a first-round pick in '97 for Buffalo then the bust the past few years. Injuries and other factors have opened the door for players like Mike Anderson (25), Anthony Thomas (38), Shaun Alexander (45), Correll Buckhalter (57), Maurice Smith (75) and Stacey Mack (87) to be solid performers. This pretty much shows that as much preparation as you do heading into the season, there is still a lot of chance and luck involved as the season unfolds.
Monday's BestQadry Ismail, WR, Ravens (8 catches, 129 yards, 1 TD): In a game dominated by defense, there will still some big plays on offense, including Ismail's long scoring strike in the third quarter. He's definitely solidified his hold as the team's go-to receiver while youngsters such as Travis Taylor and Brandon Stokley struggle with inconsistency.
Monday's WorstShannon Sharpe, TE, Ravens (2 catches, 18 yards): The Titans' offensive players all had adequate games, so none can go here. Sharpe, on the verge of breaking Ozzie Newsome's record for most receptions by a tight end, seemed preoccupied with getting those catches before his grandma went to sleep instead of trying to focus on the game. It wasn't a good fantasy scoring week for the top tight ends with the exception of Tony Gonzalez.
Bye week watchThe struggling Chiefs get the week off, meaning you'll need to find replacements for Gonzalez, Holmes, Leroy Hoard-clone Tony Richardson and the enigmatic Trent Green. Kansas City has some intriguing fantasy players, although their overall record shows there's something missing -- that would be wide receivers, which are supposed to be rather easy to find.
Injury watchWe've gone over injuries to many of the top running backs, so I won't repeat it here. Let's look at a handful of other key injuries:Wayne Chrebet, WR, Jets: This time he hurt his shoulder, and his status for the big game against the Dolphins is up in the air. He can come up with a couple of good catches here and there, but his fantasy value has nearly disappeared. His injury could open up space for rookie Santana Moss, who's eager to make his season debut in Miami, of all places. Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos: Guess what, folks, he's hurt again. TD will undergo knee surgery this week and will likely miss the next two games. Hopefully you traded him while you had the chance. Mike Anderson moves back into the starting role and Olandis Gary can be moderately useful as well. Rob Johnson, QB, Bills: You figured all the punishment would catch up with him. He's got a broken clavicle and will be out at least a month. Alex Van Pelt has shown some flashes earlier this season, and maybe he can help jump start Eric Moulds back into the game. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: Despite suffering a hairline fracture in his jaw, he wants to go. He's a gamer and he'll do his best to get himself out there. Rod Smith, WR, Broncos: He sprained his ankle against the Chargers, but he's eager to go this week. Besides, Denver needs him back given all the other turmoil at the wideout position. James Quintong is Fantasy Sports producer at CNNSI.com.
| |||||||||||||||||||||
