Poll position

College football's preseason rankings are a pile of nonsense

That sound you just heard was Auburn's national championship hopes crashing to earth. Loud, huh? The bigger they are, the harder... well, you know that part. It was possible for the most optimistic Tigers fans to write off the season-opening loss to USC as a bad afternoon, but getting spanked by Georgia Tech the following Saturday pretty much seals the deal. There will be no parades in Auburn this year.

The Tigers are among the first of the Preseason Wonders to tumble toward mediocrity. Maryland, also 0-2 after top-and-bottom losses to Florida State and Northern Illinois, is right there as well. And, trust me, more will join them. Keep an eye on Washington, which is not nearly as strong as the considerable props it received back in August would indicate. Got my doubts about Notre Dame, too. Watch what happens in the Big House Saturday afternoon.

This is all fine, right? College football is the land of upsets and unpredictability. It's what sells the game to the public on Saturday afternoon. And Saturday night. And Thursday night. And Friday night. And whenever else ESPN deigns to broadcast it. But I digress. (And I watch the games whenever they are on, drawn in Pavlovian slobber to Lee Corso's voice). The NFL is corporate America's franchise. College football is for the common man. And child.

However, let's be truthful here. Upsets are rampant in college football because of preseason rankings. And preseason rankings are a pile of nonsense. At least two national publications ranked Auburn No. 1 in the nation to begin the 2003 season. And the Tigers stood at No. 6 in AP's preseason poll and No. 9 in Sports Illustrated's preseason rankings. (Which is to be taken with a grain of salt, as we never get anything right in the preseason and we have the record to prove it. Two words: Arizona, 1994).

A respected coach once asked me how we -- by we, I mean journalists in general -- determine our preseason rankings. "What do you do?" he asked. "Count up the returning starters, look at the schedule and just put 'em in order?'' Humbled, I explained that yeah, that's pretty much it. That's why Auburn, with a strong defense and two very good running backs among its 16 returning starters, looked like such a strong pick. Never mind that the same offensive line that couldn't move USC off the ball last season was back to face the Trojans again. Never mind that those 16 returning starters lost four games in 2002. And still, two national publications figure the Tigers will win all of them in 2003? It's madness.

We should know by now that college football defies order. Sure, there is a certain reliability. Power programs usually prevail. If Miami doesn't win the national title, Ohio State or Oklahoma will. Or Michigan. Or Florida State. A team with the "resources'' (make what you will of that word) to compete on the national level. But within that power structure, and occasionally slightly outside it, it's almost impossible to accurately predict the way any given season will unfold.

Why? Because college football players are at the point in their lives during which they grow from 18 to 22 years old. (Except Maurice Clarett, who seems to have grown very little at all). In a single offseason, an offensive line or a defensive backfield can mature dramatically. And nobody knows how or when it will happen. If they did, a lot more top high school baseball draftees would become superstars.

So we get surprises. Brian Griese grows up in 1997 and Michigan comes out of nowhere to win it all. Michael Vick (not Mike back then) jumps out of his redshirt in '99 and Virginia Tech plays all the way to the national championship game. Oklahoma's defense embraces the Stoops system and batters Florida State into submission in 2000. And last year, Ohio State nailbiter-ed its way to 14-0 when nobody expected the Buckeyes to so much as win the Big Ten.

It's not a world crisis that we have brainless preseason rankings that fail to recognize these upstarts until they prove themselves. The problem is that the BCS uses the AP and coaches' polls as part of its formula, and both polls are tightly tied to their preseason rankings. Nebraska started the season off the board in the AP poll and has now climbed into the Top 25. But because the Cornhuskers started so far arrears, it will be very difficult for them to catch, say, Michigan.

USC started at No. 8 in the AP preseason poll They've since moved up into the Top 5, but how easy will it be for the Trojans to displace Oklahoma, Miami or Ohio State?

Solution: Don't start any polls until mid-October. Don't force teams to "climb." My target date this year would be following the games of Oct. 11. That's when Oklahoma plays at Texas, Miami plays at Florida State, Ohio State plays at Wisconsin and Georgia plays at Tennessee and one week after USC plays at Arizona State.

Promise you this: My poll will look a lot different on Oct. 12 than it does right now. And it will be a lot more accurate. But to make it happen, I'm going to tear up the previous polls and start over.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Layden weighs in with a Viewpoint every Friday on SI.com.